- USD/ZAR spike higher settling down a bit as one would expect
- But this doesn’t mean the run is over, near-term price action important
USD/ZAR rolling off a bit, but game might not be over
The USD/ZAR rally was one of the more impressive runs in the EM space, shooting up from around 14 to a recent high over 19 in around three months. So the current pullback isn’t to be unexpected, but the question is, is it just a pullback or the beginning of the end? Near-term price action may help provide that answer.
Thus far the decline isn’t unfolding at breakneck speed despite the nearly parabolic move it just underwent, which hints at the notion that we may only see a pullback/consolidation period. One that would eventually lead to a surge to new heights.
The parabolic high from 2016 at 17.76 might soon give us a first look at buying interest. It doesn’t need to hold for the outlook to remain bullish, but if price does hold there it would be a shallow retracement, overall, and hint at a strong appetite for Dollars over Rands.
It could unfold a couple of different ways once a near-term low is found. Price could immediately start to shoot back up to a new high or put in a consolidation phase. For a more sustainable rally it would be ideal to see the latter scenario play out. To firm up a bearish bias, should we see USD/ZAR rise up from a low and then post a lower-high, then break that low, it could open up the door for a larger, perhaps much larger, decline.
For now, in wait-and-see mode, but we should have a better idea here soon once we get a bit more price action to work with. In any event, continue to expect volatility to be elevated for the foreseeable future.
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USD/ZAR Daily Chart (pulling back to 2016 spike-high)
USD/ZAR Weekly Chart (trend up, digestion phase next?)
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