Euro at Key Range Floor. Now What?


EUR/USD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: BEARISH

  • Euro perched at key support defining 7-week digestion range
  • Break lower may bring test below 1.07, resistance near 1.10
  • Trader sentiment studies warn selling pressure may be ebbing

The Euro is idling near the bottom of a narrow range containing price moves against the US Dollar since early April. This barrier – situated in the 1.0768-78 area – is reinforced by a rising trend line limiting downside progress since the currency pair’s latest swing bottom was established in late March, at 1.0636.

A retest of this bottom may follow if EUR/USD can manage a break below immediate support, confirmed on a daily closing basis. Alternatively, a push above range resistance clustered around the 1.10 figure may set the stage to probe March 27 high at 1.1147 next.

Euro vs US Dollar price chart - daily

EUR/USD daily chart created with TradingView

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EUR/USD TRADER SENTIMENT

Retail positioning data shows 54.99% of traders are net-long, with the long-to-short ratio at 1.22 to 1. IG Client Sentiment (IGCS) is typically used as a contrarian indicator, sothe net-long skew in tradersexposure suggests that the EUR/USD trend is biased downward.

However, the net-long tilt has narrowed compared with yesterday, with the number of traders on that side of the spectrum down 9.53 percent. While it is too early to extrapolate this to suggest a positioning shift is underway, it may imply ebbing near-term selling pressure.

Euro vs US Dollar price, trader sentiment chart

See the full IGCS sentiment report here.

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EUR/USD TRADING RESOURCES

— Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for DailyFX.com

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter





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